西班牙封锁 Polymarket、Kalshi，因缺失博彩许可

西班牙消费者事务部于周二在西班牙《官方国家公报》上发布针对 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 的制裁程序，将这两家平台均归类为未获许可的博彩运营商。该部同时指示全国范围内的互联网服务提供商阻止访问这两个网站，阻断将在 7 到 10 天内生效，具体取决于运营商。制裁程序本身预计将在作出最终裁决前持续三到四个月。西班牙加入了不断增长的国家名单，将预测市场视为赌博，无论其基于区块链的结构或监管合规的结构如何。

这一监管行动反映了与西班牙法律相关的消费者保护担忧。预测市场允许用户对不确定的未来结果下注，这在西班牙法规下符合赌博的定义。西班牙获许可的博彩运营商必须实施年龄验证系统、对未成年人的访问控制、面向问题赌徒的自我排除机制，以及持续的用户监测。该部的博彩监管总局认定，Polymarket 和 Kalshi 完全缺乏这些保障措施。

Political Timing and Market Sensitivity

Polymarket recently opened a market on the possible early end of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s term. Kalshi currently offers bets on which national leader will leave office in 2026, with Sánchez listed at 29% probability. Both markets generated attention on Spanish social media, attracting regulatory scrutiny that may have accelerated the ministry’s action.

Global Regulatory Pattern

Spain is not acting in isolation. Brazil blocked both platforms earlier this year as part of a broader crackdown on prediction markets operating without gambling compliance. Indonesia blocked Polymarket last week after bets on President Prabowo’s resignation spread on local social media. The pattern is consistent across jurisdictions: governments classify event-contract betting as gambling, then act when politically sensitive markets emerge on the platforms.

Jurisdictional Distinctions and Regulatory Framework

Kalshi operates under CFTC regulation in the United States, a licensed, compliant framework. Polymarket is blockchain-based and decentralized. In Spain, that distinction is irrelevant—neither platform holds a Spanish gambling license, so both face identical treatment. Technical architecture does not override local gambling classification. A decentralized prediction market without local licensing faces the same blocking order as a traditional betting platform.